A new poll reveals that Americans believe prediction markets are much like gambling, and even the stock market is ripe for corruption.
A new Ipsos survey conducted for the American Institute for Boys and Men (AIBM) has revealed that, despite prediction markets positioning themselves as investments, the majority of Americans (and men aged 18 to 24) consider the platforms more akin to gambling than investing (61% versus 8%).
AIBM commissioned the poll to better understand where prediction markets exist within the American psyche and the broader gambling landscape. Ipsos used a nationally representative sample of 2,363 adults, including an oversample of 447 men ages 18–24, for the study.
The results also revealed that Americans have little confidence that even established financial tools, in addition to sportsbooks and prediction markets, can successfully prevent corruption.
From the full report:
Just 9% of respondents—and 27% of prediction market users—say they are confident that prediction markets could prevent individuals with non-public information from unfairly profiting on the platforms (13% of all respondents were confident in online sports betting platforms, and 30% were confident in the stock market).”
AIBM policy lead Johnathan Cohen told Gambling Insider that the stock market was included in the study as a baseline. But when the numbers were crunched, even that result was lower than expected.
70% of people who are using the platforms are not fully confident that there is no amount of insider trading. That either means that we polled a bunch of people who are good at insider trading, or that everyone who’s using the platform just assumes that this is baked in, and if and (more likely) when they lose money, they are at risk of doing so, specifically, to an insider.”
Americans See Risk in Prediction Markets — at Least the Ones Who Know What They Are
The results also show that, unsurprisingly, familiarity with prediction markets among the general public is low. But, of the Americans in the know, 91% consider event contracts “financially risky.” Among young men, that falls to only 88%.
In an X post, former gambling journalist turned responsible gambling advocate Jessica Wellman highlighted the disconnect between the industry’s point of view and the general public’s understanding.
Also, while usage, like familiarity, is low, Ipsos found young men are significantly more likely to try their luck on prediction and gambling platforms overall.
Most Americans are not actively betting on sports or using a prediction market, but usage is highly concentrated among younger men. In the past six months, 26% of young men report using at least one sports betting, daily fantasy sports, prediction market, or other gambling platform, compared to 14% of the general public.”
In addition to the results highlighted above, few of those surveyed believe prediction trading is “good for society.”
“Just 4% of Americans—and 7% of young men—believe prediction markets are good for society. Three percent say gambling in general and online sports betting are good.”
When considering preferred regulatory methods, most respondents said they should be managed alongside gambling (59%) or investments (52%) rather than separately. And while most said leaving the markets “completely unregulated” is a bad idea (66%), only a quarter agreed with an outright ban.
These results indicate that Americans are unsure of what prediction markets are for, the risks they pose, and which safeguards are necessary, the authors suggested.
Narrative Still Largely Unwritten
For all the talk about these markets, it’s notable how little of the conversation is rooted in data, especially when it comes to users, Cohen said.
He told Gambling Insider:
We just don’t have, actually, as good a sense as we think we do of who’s using these platforms, why they’re using these platforms, the relationship between people who use those platforms, that people who use sportsbooks, who use offshore, and so on.”
For that reason, AIBM wrapped up its findings with a list of questions for consideration in future prediction market studies:
- Who uses prediction markets? Where do they live? Why do they use them?
- What are the potential harms of using prediction markets? Who is at risk of suffering?
- Do prediction markets pull people away from state-licensed sportsbooks or unregulated or offshore products? Do they represent a new pathway into gambling-like behavior—especially for young men?
- What drives Americans’ attitude that prediction markets, gambling in general, and online sports betting are bad for society? Are concerns primarily related to addiction and financial loss, sports integrity, frustration with advertising, or something else? Are these concerns motivated by the societal effects or by personal experience?
- What rules should be developed at the state and/or federal level to govern prediction markets and online sports betting?
AIBM closed with a reminder that the narrative around prediction markets is still largely unwritten.
Advocates, journalists, and lawmakers have a rare chance to shape public understanding and regulatory frameworks before further adoption. Online sports betting expanded faster than any meaningful consumer protection framework. Prediction markets don’t have to follow the same path.”
Cohen reiterated there’s still a chance to shape the story before prediction markets run (even more) wild over the gambling landscape.
“There’s a huge opportunity for everyone involved, anyone interested, to write the narrative in the first place,” he implores.
Stay updated with GI
Follow Gambling Insider for independent news, analysis and industry expertise.
Gambling Insider delivers the latest industry news, in-depth features, and operator reviews that you can trust. Our team combines rigorous editorial standards with decades of specialized expertise to ensure accuracy and fairness. We are committed to delivering clear, impartial, and dependable coverage across the global gambling sector.
Ads: