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A new survey from Truist Securities finds strong engagement with prediction markets, alongside some clear concerns from users. The majority of users believe that others may have better information than they do.

Over 60% of survey respondents said they either frequently suspect insider trading or have suspected it in at least one specific contract. More than 70% said that concern has either frequently or occasionally stopped them from entering a market that they otherwise found appealing. However, most users continue to participate and don’t plan to stop.

The survey of 482 active prediction market users paints a picture of an industry with a highly engaged, loyal user base despite the friction these platforms can create.

Sporting event outcomes, political events, and economic indicators dominate participation, with users skewing toward higher education and middle- to upper-income brackets.

Nearly half participate multiple times a week, with many also believing they are winning, which likely keeps them coming back.

Edging Out Traditional Sportsbooks

DraftKings leads on both usage and perceived quality. Kalshi ranks second as the best product (16.6%), edging out FanDuel (15.2%), even though it is used by fewer people overall. That suggests prediction-focused platforms are already competing well on product quality.

One clear takeaway for sportsbooks is that prediction markets are taking user attention. About 61% spend more time on prediction markets versus 14% spending more time on sportsbooks.

Almost 54% say that they win more frequently on prediction markets. If platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket improve their mobile experience, which users ranked as the top priority, the gap with DraftKings could narrow further.

About 53% of people said that the biggest reason users prefer prediction sites is that they feel “more skill-based than luck-based.” That ranked higher than better odds, access to broader options, and intellectual stimulation.

Major Concerns About Insider Trading

The insider trading findings stand out.

When asked about how concerned they are about manipulation affecting outcomes, most respondents expressed at least some level of concern.

About 21% are extremely concerned, 40% somewhat concerned, and only 18% are not very or not at all concerned.

Notably, most users say they suspect insider trading at some level. About 31% say they frequently suspect that specific contracts were influenced by non-public information, and another 37% have suspected it at least once.

In total, roughly 71% of users say they’ve avoided a market due to worries about manipulation. That presents a clear opportunity for platforms that can credibly address those concerns.

With 17.6%, measures against insider trading ranked third among the most cited ways for platforms to boost participation. Only improving mobile experience (19.9%) and offering more diverse event categories (17.7%) ranked higher.

Not New to the Gambling Space

Of the 75% of respondents who trade on sports outcomes, 85% say they bet on sports before prediction markets became commercially available.

They came through traditional online sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel (72%), friends (46%), land-based casinos (40%), and offshore sportsbooks (36%). In other words, most users aren’t new. They’re coming from existing betting channels.

Of those people using both sportsbooks and prediction markets, 61% are spending more on the latter, and 58% say they win more often on prediction markets. Users say the biggest advantages that prediction markets have over sportsbooks include payout speed and reliability (26%), variety of available markets (26%), and ease of onboarding (15%).

For context, roughly 1 in 5 respondents say legal sports betting is not an option in their home state. Of those people, 88% said they would “certainly” or “likely” switch to a regulated sportsbook if available.

That will concern prediction market sites if major states like California and Texas eventually legalize sports betting, which they have resisted to date.

Who Are the Users?

The demographic picture that the survey paints remains tightly clustered. They skew toward the 30-39 (36%) and 40-49 (31%) brackets, with relatively few younger than 30. Almost 57% have a bachelor’s degree or higher, and household incomes cluster in the $50,000-$150,000 range, with 16% above $150,000.

Nearly half of the respondents participate multiple times a week, and 21% do so daily. The majority of them (54%) describe the legal status as “fully legal and regulated.”

However, that doesn’t fully match reality, as state regulators and operators are increasingly engaging in legal battles over whether event contracts fall under federal oversight or state gambling laws.

The survey reflects active users, which likely skews toward more engaged participants.

Users See Close Links to Traditional Investing

When asked how they conceptualize prediction markets compared to traditional investing, responses split. The biggest single group (25%) sees prediction markets mainly as entertainment.

However, another 25% see them as a supplement to their investment portfolio, and 20% see them as a legitimate alternative asset class. That suggests a meaningful group sees these platforms as more than just entertainment. Only 17% described them as “speculative gambling with an intellectual veneer.”

That helps explain why users are open to seeing prediction markets alongside other financial products, such as stocks or crypto. None of these options scored below 3.6/5 for user support in making these products available for trade on prediction market sites.

The survey provides an interesting framing. While many worry about insider trading and unfair advantages, the majority continues to engage and even drive word of mouth (86% would recommend).

For sportsbooks, it’s a warning sign. If prediction markets improve the mobile experience and address concerns about insider trading, engagement could surpass that of traditional sports betting.