Legislation likely faces as long a road to passage as the court cases between states and prediction market operators
Nevada U.S. Rep. Dina Titus on Tuesday announced plans to file legislation that would prohibit prediction market operators, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, from offering contracts on sporting events or anything similar to lucky cola casino-style games.
Prediction markets should not be able to circumvent state gaming laws,” Titus said in a statement posted on X for what she’s calling the Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act. “Consumers deserve transparency, accountability, and protection against such predatory practices.”
The move by the Las Vegas Democrat, who co-chairs the Congressional Gaming Caucus, comes as several states and prediction market operators battle each other in numerous court cases across the country. It also comes less than two weeks after Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Mike Selig announced the federal agency charged with regulating prediction markets would establish new rules to allow contracts on sporting events.
Long Road Ahead, Either Way
Most in the gaming industry expect the U.S. Supreme Court to serve as the final arbiter on whether prediction market operators can serve as an exchange for contracts on events like the Super Bowl, the NCAA Tournament, or just an average regular season game. Still, congressional action, like Titus’ measure, could also decide this high-stakes battle.
Whichever way this gets decided, don’t expect a final outcome anytime soon. The court cases are still in their early stages in state and federal courts. Remember the Florida sports betting case? That took nearly three years to reach the Supreme Court, which ultimately declined to take up the case. This one, potentially, could take longer as it involves more stakeholders.
SEE ALSO: Prediction Markets Expand as CFTC’s Chicago Enforcement Office Shrinks
As far as Congress is concerned, there are a fair number of challenges for a bill, too. It’s easy to file a bill. Getting one passed and signed into law is a much taller task. It’s even harder now as Titus is a Democrat in a House that has a narrow Republican majority. That could change at some point this year, but even if that happens, it likely won’t pass in 2026 as a standalone measure.
Latest Gambling Bill from Titus
A bill on prediction markets will likely remain in a holding pattern like another gambling bill Titus champions – restoring the full deduction of gambling losses on federal income tax returns. Titus and other lawmakers from both parties tried to insert that language in spending bills last month, but no dice.
That course, however, likely remains the best chance to restore the full deduction. It’s probably the best way, legislatively, to resolve the prediction market issue as well. Again, don’t expect anything to open up anytime soon for either measure.
Noted sports bettor Capt. Jack Andrews did offer another idea as he criticized the Nevada congresswoman on social media for a bill, he said, “would erase a lot of the goodwill she had gained from gamblers.”
Many gamblers would like to see prediction markets become established because those platforms provide an exchange for bettors, who may face limits on how much they can wager at sportsbooks.
The agriculture committees he cited have congressional oversight authority over commodity exchanges.
Don’t Forget the Trump Card
There is another political issue at play here. It’s the Trump Administration that has taken the tack of allowing prediction markets to offer sports contracts, and that came after his eldest son became an adviser to Kalshi.
As industry investor and adviser Chris Grove noted in his response to Titus’ bill on X, prediction markets aren’t necessarily a partisan issue, but with this piece of legislation, it’s definitely moving in that direction.
That’s important to remember, as most gambling issues tend to transcend party lines. However, most Washington Republicans have remained loyal to Trump, and even if they represent a state that’s challenging the prediction markets’ legality, their track record shows they’re most likely to back the White House instead.
Of course, by the time Congress finally decides to take action, Trump may no longer be president and we may need to address yet another disrupter trying to revolutionize the gambling industry.
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